Denali Wealth Management

2019 Q4 Market Review

Quarterly Market Perspective

This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.

The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.

View PDF

Denali Wealth Management

2019 Q3 Market Commentary

General Market Commentary as of September 30, 2019

The third quarter saw, for the first time in over a decade, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates (not once but twice). Data suggests that later this month we are likely to see a third rate cut in as many meetings. With concerns over global economic weakening, trade tensions, and low inflation around the world, bond yields have continued to fall. Meanwhile, abroad, the European Central Bank (ECB) unveiled a stimulus package in hopes of reviving growth and inflation in the face of negative interest rates.

Despite the ongoing global trade fears and political rhetoric, the US equity market made modest strides in Q3. Some of the stronger returns were seen in the defensive equity and fixed income sectors, benefiting from lower interest rates. As we near the end of the year, year-to-date returns for all major asset categories remain in positive territory.

The current inverted yield curve could be interpreted as an ominous signal, yet the record low unemployment rate and the rise in payroll suggest otherwise. Regardless, predicting “if” a recession will occur, let alone “when”, would be a feat in and of itself. With all the noise circulating around this uncertainty it will likely only ramp-up over the next year. However, the market has shown to reward those who stay disciplined throughout the process.

Market Recap

Tot Return 3-MO* 12-MO* 3-Year* 5-Year* Closing Value
S&P 500 1.19% 2.15% 11.14% 8.58% 2,976.74
Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.19% 1.73% 13.71% 9.57% 26,916.83
NASDAQ Composite -0.09% -0.58% 14.62% 12.23% 7,999.34

Source: Morningstar. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite are unmanaged indexes. It is not possible to invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. * Price only. Does not include dividends.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest, educational purposes and factual reference only and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.

Denali Wealth Management

2019 Q3 Market Review

Quarterly Market Perspective

This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.

The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.

View PDF

Denali Wealth Management

2019 Q2 Market Commentary

General Market Commentary as of June 30, 2019

The stock and bond markets are displaying a dichotomy of outcomes for the remaining months of 2019. Falling bond yields and an inverted yield curve appears to be signaling slower economic growth. On the other hand, strong equity gains in the US and many emerging markets suggest hopes for earnings acceleration later in the year.

Positive economic growth, low inflation, and accommodative monetary policies should support financial asset prices in the second half of 2019. For bond investors, slow but positive economic growth, limited inflationary pressures and friendly central banks should create a supportive environment for them as well for the balance of 2019.

That being said, for most investors, keeping a disciplined long-term perspective is the best policy to follow. This is no time to try and out smart the markets, but it is a good time to be diversified.

Market Recap

Tot Return 3-MO* 12-MO* 3-Year* 5-Year* Closing Value
S&P 500 3.79% 8.22% 11.91% 8.46% 2,941.76
Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.59% 9.59% 14.05% 9.59% 26,599.96
NASDAQ Composite 3.58% 6.60% 18.24% 12.68% 8,006.24

Source: Morningstar. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite are unmanaged indexes. It is not possible to invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. * Price only. Does not include dividends.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest, educational purposes and factual reference only and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.

Denali Wealth Management

2019 Q1 Market Commentary

General Market Commentary as of March 31, 2019

After a dismal fourth quarter, the first quarter of 2019 got off to a fast start for both bonds and stocks.

Coming off its worst quarterly performance since 2011, the S&P 500 rebounded 13.1% in Q1 for its best quarterly performance in ten years. The rebound is being largely attributed to an oversold bounce, improving expectations for a trade deal with China, and maybe most importantly a dovish leaning by global central banks.

Be that as it may, a caution flag was raised in March as the yield curve inversion extended further out on the curve to the 3mo – 10yr spread for the first time since 2007 with the 10-year Treasury yields hitting 15-month lows (2.34%).

Fed Fund Futures are now pricing a 64% probability for a rate cut by December as opposed to previous expectations for a rate rise.

Market Recap

Tot Return 3-MO* 12-MO* 3-Year* 5-Year* Closing Value
S&P 500 13.07% 7.33% 11.23% 8.65% 2,834.40
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11.15% 7.57% 13.60% 9.52% 25,928.68
NASDAQ Composite 16.49% 9.41% 16.65% 12.98% 7,729.32

Source: Morningstar. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite are unmanaged indexes. It is not possible to invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. * Price only. Does not include dividends.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest, educational purposes and factual reference only and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.

Denali Wealth Management

2018 Q4 Market Commentary

General Market Commentary as of December 31, 2018

Stock market Investors certainly are relieved that 2018 is over.

No wonder. It was a bruising year, the worst since 2008 during the financial crisis, as the S&P 500 fell 6.2% and a bear market seemed all but inevitable with the S&P 500 down more than 19% from a September high.

Clearly Fed policy is front and center to a lot of what is driving financial markets these days. There’s still a disconnect between what investors see (slowing economic growth) versus what policymakers see (economic growth is still pretty good).

Ten-year Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since 2011 as the Fed raised their target rate for the fourth time in December. In spite of those raises, bond yields still remain below their historical averages.

Meanwhile, one lingering issue has been overshadowed by the Fed lately: trade talks with China.

Market Recap

Tot Return 3-MO* 12-MO* 3-Year* 5-Year* Closing Value
S&P 500 -13.97% -6.24% 7.04% 6.28% 2,506.85
Dow Jones Industrial Average -11.83% -5.63% 10.21% 7.07% 23,327.46
NASDAQ Composite -17.54% -3.88% 9.84% 9.70% 6,635.28

Source: Morningstar. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite are unmanaged indexes. It is not possible to invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. * Price only. Does not include dividends.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest, educational purposes and factual reference only and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.